BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968
81Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029
6.5Projected 2029 index
0.00–2895% range
±23.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025110.0032
2026100.0031
20278.90.0030
20287.70.0029
20296.50.0028

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Peninsular Florida.
ShawanoFLORIDA10872002
Shawano 2FLORIDA3922011
AndytownFLORIDA2471998
KendallFLORIDA2471991
ClewistonFLORIDA2212023
Holey LandFLORIDA1632024
Dale MabryFLORIDA1451988
AlturasFLORIDA1391986
BrowardFLORIDA911973
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA882024
Key WestFLORIDA731987
SandyFLORIDA602015
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA602004
Key LargoFLORIDA581991
GardnerFLORIDA571999
Plantation KFLORIDA522004
Merritt IslFLORIDA512011
TamiamiFLORIDA471974
CorbettFLORIDA442024
Indiantown 2FLORIDA412024
MabelFLORIDA402011
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA392021
Devils GardnFLORIDA372024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA342024
SalvistaFLORIDA341979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.