BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0032
2026100.0031
20278.90.0030
20287.70.0029
20296.50.0028

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawanoFLORIDA10872002
Shawano 2FLORIDA3922011
AndytownFLORIDA2471998
KendallFLORIDA2471991
ClewistonFLORIDA2212023
Holey LandFLORIDA1632024
Dale MabryFLORIDA1451988
AlturasFLORIDA1391986
BrowardFLORIDA911973
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA882024
Key WestFLORIDA731987
SandyFLORIDA602015
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA602004
Key LargoFLORIDA581991
GardnerFLORIDA571999
Plantation KFLORIDA522004
Merritt IslFLORIDA512011
TamiamiFLORIDA471974
CorbettFLORIDA442024
Indiantown 2FLORIDA412024
MabelFLORIDA402011
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA392021
Devils GardnFLORIDA372024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA342024
SalvistaFLORIDA341979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.