BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Herring Gull Population Trend in Ohio

All statesWetland birds

Herring Gull in Ohio has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Herring Gull Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Herring Gull in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Herring Gull Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Herring Gull in Ohio is projected to rise about 328% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±476.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+328%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±476.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Herring Gull in Ohio is projected to rise about 328% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±476.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.002.6
20260.300.002.6
20270.270.002.6
20280.250.002.6
20290.230.002.6

Herring Gull Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Herring Gull in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bismark2219951976
Limestone1220191986
Graytown919841967
Hiram419931992
Botkins320192012
N Baltimore219851979
Garrettsvile219911984
Lenox220152015
Pittsfield120082008
Peru119751967
Norwalk120192000
Vickery120241996
Herner Crns120241972
Birmingham119931993

Herring Gull Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.