BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Herring Gull Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Herring Gull in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-54%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Herring Gull Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Herring Gull has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Herring Gull Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Herring Gull in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Herring Gull in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.71
20260.000.000.71
20270.000.000.71
20280.000.000.71
20290.000.000.71

Herring Gull Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Herring Gull in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nebish519861986
Island Lake220161975
Little Fork219951969
Waskish220031978
Evergreen219841984
Lockport120021974
Sawbill Lndg119941978
Hart Lake119971974
Cohasset120051977
Sherry Lake119861971
Sawbill Camp120191994
Babbitt119981994
Crane Lake120151969
Lude119841982
Glendale120231993
Tyler119931993
Hovland120241973

Herring Gull Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.