Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Herring Gull Population Trend in New York
Herring Gull in New York has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-95%Since 1968
45Routes In State
58Years
Notable Herring Gull Trends in New York
long arc declinecomputed index
Herring Gull has collapsed in New York: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Herring Gull Population Forecast in New York
If the recent trend holds, Herring Gull in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±233.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.595% range
±233.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.5 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.5 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.5 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.5 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.5 |
Herring Gull Survey Routes in New York
| St Johnsburg | 44 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Jones Beach | 36 | 2013 | 1966 |
| Huntington | 20 | 2023 | 1967 |
| Westhampton | 10 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Somers | 8 | 1977 | 1970 |
| Crescent | 5 | 1998 | 1998 |
| Old Forge 2 | 4 | 2017 | 2017 |
| Hamburg | 3 | 1997 | 1997 |
| E Youngstown | 3 | 2013 | 1978 |
| Old Forge | 3 | 2006 | 1971 |
| Highland | 2 | 2022 | 1977 |
| Penfield | 2 | 1995 | 1972 |
| Watertown | 2 | 1969 | 1969 |
| Clinton | 2 | 2006 | 2006 |
| Speculator | 2 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Inlet | 2 | 2017 | 1989 |
| Manorville | 1 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Hauppauge | 1 | 2018 | 1966 |
| Bedford | 1 | 1996 | 1972 |
| Rhinebeck | 1 | 1984 | 1984 |
| W Shokan | 1 | 2000 | 1992 |
| Ballston Lk | 1 | 1978 | 1970 |
| Dryden | 1 | 1999 | 1999 |
| Macdougall | 1 | 1999 | 1989 |
| Horseshoe L. | 1 | 2008 | 1993 |
Herring Gull Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.