Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Herring Gull Population Trend in Michigan
Herring Gull in Michigan has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-94%Since 1968
40Routes In State
58Years
Notable Herring Gull Trends in Michigan
long arc declinecomputed index
Herring Gull has collapsed in Michigan: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Herring Gull Population Forecast in Michigan
If the recent trend holds, Herring Gull in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.295% range
±57.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 4.2 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.2 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.2 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.2 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.2 |
Herring Gull Survey Routes in Michigan
| Cathro | 100 | 2016 | 1970 |
| Adair | 33 | 1987 | 1985 |
| Lake City | 26 | 1998 | 1998 |
| St Charles | 19 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Hiawatha Nf | 14 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Pickford | 10 | 2024 | 1973 |
| Tahquamenon | 6 | 2010 | 1990 |
| Skegemog Pt | 6 | 2019 | 1986 |
| Herman | 4 | 2013 | 1983 |
| Wilson | 4 | 2005 | 1982 |
| Richmond | 4 | 2014 | 2003 |
| Creighton | 3 | 1989 | 1981 |
| Isabella | 3 | 2004 | 1966 |
| Ontonagon | 2 | 2017 | 1985 |
| Bergland | 2 | 2015 | 1989 |
| Bootjack | 2 | 2016 | 1967 |
| Cunard | 2 | 2004 | 2004 |
| Walloon Lake 2 | 2 | 2010 | 2007 |
| Gilchrist | 2 | 2018 | 1977 |
| Herron | 2 | 2013 | 2011 |
| Raco | 2 | 1994 | 1992 |
| Hubbard Lake | 2 | 1996 | 1992 |
| Hamtramck | 2 | 1984 | 1978 |
| Deckerville | 2 | 2016 | 1980 |
| Gibbs City | 1 | 1992 | 1992 |
Herring Gull Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.