BirdAnalyst
Guild · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Colorado

All statesColorado

23 species in this guild. As a group they are -75%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have collapsed in Colorado, down 75% since 1970.

Wetland Birds In Colorado Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Colorado is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Colorado is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.002.9
20270.070.002.8
20280.000.002.7
20290.000.002.7
20300.000.002.7

Member Species In Colorado

Wetland birds species in Colorado.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
White-faced IbisThreskiornithidae-96%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-95%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-83%
American BitternArdeidae-79%
Forster's TernLaridae-77%
Virginia RailRallidae-76%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-70%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae-67%
American DipperCinclidae-54%
American CootRallidae-38%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-32%
Black TernLaridae-6%
Eared GrebePodicipedidae-3%
Western GrebePodicipedidae+2%
Ring-billed GullLaridae+46%
SoraRallidae+102%
Sandhill CraneGruidae+138%
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae+239%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+241%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae+345%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae18×
American White PelicanPelecanidae37×
California GullLaridae140×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.