BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Colorado

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Colorado has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-73%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia Rail has fallen sharply in Colorado: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±185.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.07
20260.000.000.07
20270.000.000.07
20280.000.000.07
20290.000.000.07

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kiowa320151980
Fruita220022001
Moffat220231983
Cokedale120232021
Arsenal 2120242021
Elbert120112011
Doyleville120212010
Guffey120072007
Fort Morgan120102008
Lamar120182015
Dolores119761976
Falfa120242024
Paonia120052005
Wray Gulch120021990

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniaconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.