BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Washington

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Washington has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-63%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia Rail has fallen sharply in Washington: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.030.000.10

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozette220082008
Wilbur219991999
Mendota219881977
Warm Beach 2220222022
Port Angeles120152005
Warm Beach120162016
Chewelah119931993
Turnbull Nwr120231999
Mendota 2119961996
Reardan120132009
Columbia Nwr120212012
Rimrock120181987
Tonasket120141999
Cusick120021991
South Elma120241999
Ellensburg120041998
Spring Lake120212021
Nighthawk120232018
Raymond120212021
Mt Rainier119931993
Potholes120182005
Bay View120072007
Omak Creek120222007
Laurier120122012
L. Wenatchee120222021

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.