BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Minnesota has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Minnesota is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Minnesota is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.08
20260.020.000.08
20270.020.000.07
20280.020.000.07
20290.020.000.07

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlington220021967
Princeton219751969
Evergreen220121997
Money Creek119911991
Hartland120052005
Sherburne Nr120231990
Tamarac Nwr119981998
Big Stone120051996
Minnetonka120052005
Nebish120192019
Maynard119951995
Osseo120141982
Knapp120041971
Appleton120121984
Gluek119821982
Chokio120131983
Wigwam Bay120141970
Backus119981967
Edwards119871987
Glyndon120242008
Hart Lake119981998
Island Lake119851972
Sherry Lake119971997
Debs120132013
Wylie119701970

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.