BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Wisconsin has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.04

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Exeland220011993
Hebron219901990
Iron River119851983
Minong120212021
Montreal120132013
Dresser120172001
Loraine120051974
Cumberland119761974
Gilman119831974
Omro 2120082004
Phillips119911991
Merrill119731973
Mcnaughton119881988
Hollister119671967
Esdaile119991999
Trempealeau120111994
Unity120242023
Mather120211969
Wis Rapids119671967
Elderon120151971
Manawa120102010
Omro119941978
Clintonville119931993
Bashaw120162003
Casco120042004

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.