BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in California

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in California has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+64%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in California. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±252%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±252%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±252%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.08
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.08
20280.040.000.08
20290.040.000.08

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Virginia Rail in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial Dam520101976
Yreka420161985
Dorris220191981
Ora Loma219831983
Point Reyes220191995
Nubieber120011990
Crescent Cty120032003
Iron Gate120112010
Gazelle120171992
Red Bluff119961994
Fish Rock119941993
Glenn119921992
Likely120241975
Madeline120132013
Meadow Valley120172017
Onyx119961996
Honey Lake120161995
Orleans119941994
Macdoel120101987
Mccloud119841984
Tranquillity119731973
Cedarville120151974
Pescadero120022002
Bodega Bay120042003
Ingalls119961996

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.