BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in North Dakota has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+123%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia Rail has surged in North Dakota: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.28 (95% range 0.01–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±176.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.28 (95% range 0.01–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.52
20260.270.000.53
20270.270.010.53
20280.270.010.53
20290.280.010.54

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Virginia Rail in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk320241989
Powers Lake320141999
Rolla220151969
Niles220231992
Regan220161994
Carpio219761974
Denbigh220151972
Sheyenne Lk220221995
Montpelier220192012
Forman120161969
Walcott119741974
Sydney119691969
Edgeley120152010
Lake George120191997
Danzig119931993
Kempton120052005
Cooperstown120241969
Wimbledon120242013
Buchanan120241968
Bowesmont119741974
Lakota120091972
Webster120151996
Dunn Center119971979
Bowman120141996
Golva120192007

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.