BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Nevada has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+1%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Nevada is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Nevada is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.18
20260.060.000.18
20270.060.000.18
20280.060.000.17
20290.050.000.17

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Virgin Creek220181995
Meadow Vally220241997
Ranchogrande119911991
Sand Pass120211995
Ash Meadows120191994
Charleston Reservoir120242024
Toiyabe Nf120242024
Gardnerville120051996
Hiko119681968
Beatty120162011

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.