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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-63%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia Rail has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.07
20260.010.000.07
20270.010.000.07
20280.010.000.07
20290.010.000.06

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gibbs City419921992
Scottville219711971
Big Blue Lk220032003
Howardsville220212021
Hungerford120002000
Chippewa Lk.120081998
Seney Nwr120241992
Allegan Wma120012001
Cunard119851985
Lawrence119731973
Bravo119961991
Muskallonge120062006
Tahquamenon120132013
Skegemog Pt119931993
Nashville120181971
Galesburg120231969
Monterey120122002
Rochester120112011
Mottville120012001
Riggsville120172017
Skeels119741974
Homer119851985
Cathro119791979
Juniata119901990
S Lyons119781976

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.