BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Oregon has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-8%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±237.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.19
20260.070.000.19
20270.080.000.19
20280.080.000.19
20290.080.000.19

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harney Lake320021996
Bridgeport220071990
Bly 2220192019
Princeton219851974
Merrill220022002
Trout Creek119991999
Summit Pr119951991
Scappoose120222008
Nicolai Mtn.120241998
Dell Spring119751975
Malheur Nwr119971997
Modoc Point120142014
Adair120062002
Sparta119821982
Blizzard Gap120232023
Fish Lake120221972
Unity119941994
Warner Vally120231997
Mcminnville120122012
Davis Lake120082008
Chinchalo120241996
Sams Valley119981994

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.