BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Virginia Rail Population Analysis

RallidaeWetland birdsRallus limicola

Virginia Rail has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
389RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Virginia Rail

The Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola) is a North American member of the Rails, Gallinules & Coots (Rallidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
6–19 in long (15–48 cm) — a marsh-dwelling waterbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 389 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 36 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Rallidae · Wetland birds

Notable Virginia Rail TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.010.03
20270.020.010.03
20280.020.010.03
20290.020.010.03
20300.020.010.03

Where the Virginia Rail Is Detected

BBS routes recording Virginia Rail, sized by most recent count.

Virginia Rail Population Trend by State

Virginia Rail population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+12%19984
California+69%197532
Colorado-76%198315
Connecticutinsufficient datan/a4
Delawareinsufficient datan/a2
Idaho-55%19898
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a4
Indianainsufficient datan/a2
Iowainsufficient datan/a1
Kansas-49%19766
Maine-83%19738
Maryland+52%19723
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a3
Michigan-63%197325
Minnesota-41%197035
Montana+47%198011
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a2
Nevada+26%199410
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a4
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a1
New Mexico-26%19988
New York-40%197022
North Carolinainsufficient datan/a1
North Dakota+131%197033
Ohioinsufficient datan/a2
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a1
Oregon-26%197524
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a5
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a1
South Dakota-60%197318
Utah-19%199615
Vermont-64%19748
Virginiainsufficient datan/a3
Washington-76%198727
Wisconsin-65%197033
Wyominginsufficient datan/a8

Virginia Rail Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Virginia Rail population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-47%198423
Great Basin+38%197457
Northern Rockies-56%198625
Prairie Potholes+33%196953
Boreal Hardwood Transition-45%197131
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-28%197120
Atlantic Northern Forest-80%197320
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-77%199018
Badlands and Prairies-11%197918
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-29%19766
Prairie Hardwood Transition-54%197052
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+107%196817
Coastal California-26%199211
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+24%19908

Virginia Rail Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 14% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.