Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Virginia Rail in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-30%Since 1971
20Routes In Region
27Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027
0.02Projected 2027 index
0.000.0595% range
±66.6%Backtest error
19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20230.020.000.05
20240.020.000.05
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12009
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12016
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK11971
OrleansNEW-YORK11998
West SenecaNEW-YORK11993
CastileNEW-YORK12006
RandolphNEW-YORK11975
ByronNEW-YORK11989
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11984
WatertownNEW-YORK11994
Alder CreekNEW-YORK11986
OneidaNEW-YORK11972
North EastonNEW-YORK12011
OgdensburgNEW-YORK11996
NaplesNEW-YORK11979
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK12022
N VictoryNEW-YORK11970
MiddlefieldOHIO11990
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA11971
HinesburgVERMONT11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.