Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Virginia Rail In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
Virginia Rail in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
-30%Since 1971
20Routes In Region
27Years
Notable Signals
No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2027
0.02Projected 2027 index
0.00–0.0595% range
±66.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| 2024 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| 2025 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| 2026 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| 2027 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
| Rhinebeck | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2009 |
| Duanesburg | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2016 |
| Oriskany Fls | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1971 |
| Orleans | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1998 |
| West Seneca | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1993 |
| Castile | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2006 |
| Randolph | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1975 |
| Byron | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1989 |
| Churchville | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1984 |
| Watertown | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1994 |
| Alder Creek | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1986 |
| Oneida | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1972 |
| North Easton | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2011 |
| Ogdensburg | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1996 |
| Naples | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1979 |
| Philadelphia | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2022 |
| N Victory | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1970 |
| Middlefield | OHIO | 1 | 1990 |
| Espyville | PENNSYLVANIA | 1 | 1971 |
| Hinesburg | VERMONT | 1 | 1977 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.