BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Virginia Rail In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Great Basin has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+38%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Great Basin is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Great Basin is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.010.15
20270.080.010.15
20280.080.010.15
20290.080.010.15
20300.080.010.15

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harney LakeOREGON32002
Salt SpringsUTAH32021
DorrisCALIFORNIA22019
Magic MtnIDAHO21999
Virgin CreekNEVADA22018
Meadow VallyNEVADA22025
PrincetonOREGON21985
Bly 2OREGON22019
MerrillOREGON22002
Hardware RanchUTAH22003
WilburWASHINGTON21999
NubieberCALIFORNIA12001
IngallsCALIFORNIA11996
LikelyCALIFORNIA12024
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA12016
MacdoelCALIFORNIA12010
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA12015
MadelineCALIFORNIA12013
Iron GateCALIFORNIA12011
SquirrelIDAHO11977
PicaboIDAHO11993
Cedar HillIDAHO12003
AlmoIDAHO11995
PrestonIDAHO11994
RanchograndeNEVADA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.