BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Virginia Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia Rail has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Virginia Rail In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.12
20260.050.000.12
20270.050.000.12
20280.050.000.12
20290.050.000.12

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Virginia Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GloucesterVIRGINIA41999
HongaMARYLAND32024
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT22008
Warren 2CONNECTICUT22013
MadisonMARYLAND22024
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT12013
WarrenCONNECTICUT12010
HarringtonDELAWARE12021
BlackbirdDELAWARE12021
CokesburyMARYLAND12021
MarionMASSACHUSETTS11969
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS12022
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS12021
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE11982
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND11989
Colonial PkyVIRGINIA11998
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.