BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+24%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±148.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.120.000.25
20250.120.000.25
20260.120.000.26
20270.120.000.26
20280.120.000.26

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA52010
LagunaARIZONA12010
ArabyARIZONA12023
OnyxCALIFORNIA11996
NilandCALIFORNIA12018
Lone PineCALIFORNIA11976
BeattyNEVADA12016
Ash MeadowsNEVADA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.