BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-81%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia Rail has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Virginia Rail In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.07
20240.010.000.06
20250.010.000.06
20260.000.000.06
20270.000.000.06

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forest StaMAINE31985
HudsonMAINE21989
BethelMAINE12012
Bowdoin CtrMAINE11989
HermonMAINE11983
WaiteMAINE11977
AshlandMAINE11990
JeffersonMAINE12005
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE11967
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE11974
NewcombNEW-YORK11975
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK12012
MarlboroVERMONT11976
StrattonVERMONT11977
Post MillsVERMONT12022
S WallingfrdVERMONT11983
W RutlandVERMONT12015
East CalaisVERMONT11981
WatervilleVERMONT11967

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.