BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-56%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±174.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.020.000.06
20240.020.000.06
20250.020.000.06
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BridgeportOREGON22007
Saleratus CrUTAH22016
NaplesIDAHO12018
FeathervilleIDAHO11990
KalispellMONTANA12019
St MaryMONTANA11982
EllistonMONTANA12009
BeaverheadMONTANA11986
Red RockMONTANA11994
GlenMONTANA11980
SpartaOREGON11982
Summit PrOREGON11995
UnityOREGON11994
RandolphUTAH11998
Neponset ResUTAH12018
ChewelahWASHINGTON11993
CusickWASHINGTON12002
Spring LakeWASHINGTON12021
Omak CreekWASHINGTON12022
LaurierWASHINGTON12012
Ne EntranceWYOMING12013
MammothWYOMING11999
Hunter PeakWYOMING11988
TensleepWYOMING12010
Mtn ViewWYOMING11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.