BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.25
20260.120.000.25
20270.130.000.25
20280.130.000.26
20290.130.000.26

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA32014
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22002
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA22015
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA22023
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22016
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA21976
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA22015
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22022
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA22019
WashingtonIOWA12010
HartlandMINNESOTA12005
MaynardMINNESOTA11995
AppletonMINNESOTA12012
GluekMINNESOTA11982
ChokioMINNESOTA12013
GlyndonMINNESOTA12024
WylieMINNESOTA11970
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA11999
FairmontMINNESOTA12017
Big StoneMINNESOTA12005
Ester LakeMONTANA12023
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA12016
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA11974
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA11969

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.