BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-45%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.010.000.06
20290.010.000.06

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN41992
ExelandWISCONSIN22001
CunardMICHIGAN11985
MuskallongeMICHIGAN12006
TahquamenonMICHIGAN12013
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN11993
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN12017
SkeelsMICHIGAN11974
CathroMICHIGAN11979
Seney NwrMICHIGAN12024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA12014
BackusMINNESOTA11998
Hart LakeMINNESOTA11998
Island LakeMINNESOTA11985
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA11997
DebsMINNESOTA12013
McgregorMINNESOTA12024
BrainerdMINNESOTA12007
BlackduckMINNESOTA12013
GreenbushMINNESOTA12022
NebishMINNESOTA12019
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA11998
Iron RiverWISCONSIN11985
MinongWISCONSIN12021
MontrealWISCONSIN12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.