BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-47%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.06
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06
20280.020.000.06
20290.020.000.06

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YrekaCALIFORNIA42016
OzetteWASHINGTON22008
MendotaWASHINGTON21988
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON22022
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA12003
Fish RockCALIFORNIA11994
OrleansCALIFORNIA11994
MccloudCALIFORNIA11984
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA12004
GazelleCALIFORNIA12017
AdairOREGON12006
Sams ValleyOREGON11998
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON12024
McminnvilleOREGON12012
ScappooseOREGON12022
Port AngelesWASHINGTON12015
Warm BeachWASHINGTON12016
South ElmaWASHINGTON12024
RaymondWASHINGTON12021
Mt RainierWASHINGTON11993
Bay ViewWASHINGTON12007
CarnationWASHINGTON12017
Mendota 2WASHINGTON11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.