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Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Maryland

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Maryland has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+51%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Virginia Rail has risen sharply in Maryland: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Maryland is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Maryland is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.18
20260.070.000.18
20270.070.000.18
20280.070.000.18
20290.070.000.18

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Honga320241973
Madison220241966
Cokesbury120211966

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.