BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Virginia Rail in New York has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Virginia Rail Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in New York. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.020.000.04
20240.020.000.04
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04

Virginia Rail Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Virginia Rail in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rhinebeck120091966
Duanesburg120162016
Corbettsvile119661966
Oneonta119691969
Oriskany Fls119711971
N Victory119701970
Orleans119981998
West Seneca119931993
Castile120062006
Randolph119751975
Byron119891987
Churchville119841984
Watertown119941994
St Regis Fls120122010
Alder Creek119861986
Oneida119721972
Newcomb119751975
North Easton120111996
Ogdensburg119961987
Naples119791974
Philadelphia120221987
Milford119921992

Virginia Rail Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.