BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Virginia Rail In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Virginia Rail in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Virginia Rail in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Virginia Rail In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Virginia Rail in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05
20290.020.000.05

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Virginia Rail in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScottvilleMICHIGAN21971
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN22003
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN22021
PrincetonMINNESOTA21975
EvergreenMINNESOTA22012
HebronWISCONSIN21990
MiddleburyINDIANA12004
Indiana DuneINDIANA12015
LawrenceMICHIGAN11973
BravoMICHIGAN11996
NashvilleMICHIGAN12018
GalesburgMICHIGAN12023
MontereyMICHIGAN12012
MottvilleMICHIGAN12001
HomerMICHIGAN11985
JuniataMICHIGAN11990
S LyonsMICHIGAN11978
HungerfordMICHIGAN12000
RochesterMICHIGAN12011
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN12008
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN12001
Money CreekMINNESOTA11991
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA12005
OsseoMINNESOTA12014
KnappMINNESOTA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.