BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican Population Trend in Colorado

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Colorado has surged: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1991.

33×Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Colorado: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1991.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Colorado is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.82–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.82–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Colorado is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.82–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.623.9
20262.30.674.0
20272.40.724.0
20282.40.774.1
20292.50.824.1

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording American White Pelican in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guffey26020241993
Tarryall5520231997
Kiowa 24920242024
Rifle Falls4620002000
Wildhorse L3520241993
Cochetopa Pass2820242019
Walden1420241991
Stillwater Pass1120091998
Arsenal 2920182016
Steamboat L.920222011
Julesburg820172002
San Luis820002000
Arsenal720141993
Last Chance720091990
Doyleville620242021
Fort Morgan620191996
Stoneham620031996
Haswell620241992
Briggsdale520241997
Browns Park420062006
Prospect Val419991999
Neegrande320171997
Nunn220181995
Como220132013
Grover220191999

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.