BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican Population Trend in California

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in California has surged: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+213%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in California: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in California is projected to rise about 458% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.51–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±436.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+458%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±436.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in California is projected to rise about 458% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.51–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±436.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.40.356.5
20263.50.396.6
20273.50.436.6
20283.60.476.7
20293.60.516.7

American White Pelican Survey Routes in California

Routes recording American White Pelican in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Gate11320191988
Mt Shasta6019811981
Pennington5020241991
Bartle4319841984
Atwater3820071988
Dorris2620191972
Bridgeport2419771977
Staten Is.2020222022
Likely1820191979
Riovista1620151993
Westley1520172008
Cedarville1320172015
Copperopolis1220222000
Sattley1020241975
Honey Lake1020191996
Arvin820172013
Little Truckee820132013
Crowder Flat720192002
Oneals620162015
Ingalls520011974
Yreka420161993
Madeline320161997
Macdoel320191977
Nubieber220051989
Eagle Lake220191972

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.