BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican Population Trend in California

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in California has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+178%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in California: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in California is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.34–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±436.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±436.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in California is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.34–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±436.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.30.216.4
20273.30.246.5
20283.40.286.5
20293.40.316.5
20303.40.346.6

American White Pelican Survey Routes in California

Routes recording American White Pelican in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Gate11320191988
Mt Shasta6019811981
Ingalls5020251974
Bartle4319841984
Hughson4220251988
Atwater3820071988
Dorris2620191972
Bridgeport2419771977
Staten Is.2020222022
Riovista1920251993
Likely1820191979
Westley1520172008
Pennington1320251991
Cedarville1320172015
Copperopolis1220222000
Honey Lake1020191996
Arvin820172013
Little Truckee820132013
Crowder Flat720192002
Oneals620162015
Sattley520251975
Yreka420161993
Madeline320161997
Macdoel320191977
Nubieber220051989

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.