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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican Population Trend in Montana

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Montana has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

18×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Montana: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Montana is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Montana is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.006.2
20261.90.006.2
20271.90.006.3
20281.90.006.3
20291.90.006.3

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording American White Pelican in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Two Dot7220241979
Hay Lake4620172015
Winifred3220232023
Willow Creek 22620241992
Harlem2520171998
Freeman Creek2420152015
Wheat Basin2420242019
Forsyth2120062004
Red Rock2020241974
Malta1820181992
Oswego1720062003
Hebgen Lake1320242017
Beaverhead1120241986
Wise River1120172017
Flatwillow 21020222010
Ester Lake1020242015
Savage920131990
East Glacier Park720192019
Clyde Park620182018
Virgelle420192019
Cleveland420241982
Augusta420241976
Jordan420241968
Circle420181999
Shawmut420242024

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotanebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.