BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Minnesota has surged: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+259%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Minnesota: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Minnesota is projected to rise about 202% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.29–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+202%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±197.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Minnesota is projected to rise about 202% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.29–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.60.009.2
20274.70.079.3
20284.70.149.3
20294.80.229.4
20304.90.299.5

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American White Pelican in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Stone24020121995
Tenney12020161978
Huntley2520122004
Ashby2020191997
Bagley2020061997
Tracy1820252004
Maynard1720151995
Franklin1520071993
Dawson1420231987
Knapp1320251987
Bemidji1319791979
Fairmont1220251996
Tamarac Nwr1120191991
Glenwood1120191993
Red Lake1120231994
Minnetonka1020252001
Appleton1020191978
Glyndon1020252004
Chokio820251978
Nett Lake720162014
Worthington720232004
Le Center720251993
Debs620241994
Osseo520252009
New London520241997

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.