BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican Population Trend in Utah

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Utah has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-71%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has fallen sharply in Utah: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Utah is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Utah is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.006.8
20260.820.006.7
20270.730.006.6
20280.640.006.5
20290.550.006.4

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording American White Pelican in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res20020181997
Goshen3520241998
Delta3020152015
Kamas2520242005
Bear River2420231992
M Warner Res2020222006
Leamington1620171996
Callao820241992
Saleratus Cr720172013
Vernal620112005
Lynn520232013
E. Bear Lake219991999
Crawford Mts220172017
Snowville220182015
Promontory120241971
Oak City119961996
Woodruff120242024
Randolph120242002
Beck 2120162010
Hardware Ranch119981998
Jensen120101994

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.