BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in North Dakota has surged: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+247%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in North Dakota: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.2 (95% range 2.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.2 (95% range 2.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.72.111
20276.82.211
20286.92.312
20297.12.412
20307.22.512

American White Pelican Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American White Pelican in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bowman7020211996
Buchanan6120251968
Wild Rose4020242000
Montpelier3220242000
Ft Yates2619801980
Lakota 22520252010
Cedar Creek2420192019
Danzig2320141983
Parshall2020051986
Horsehead Lk1620251980
Forman1320252001
Cooperstown1320251977
Carpio1219741974
Douglas Crk1220251984
Danzig 21120252019
Dickinson920242024
Sheyenne Lk920251980
Edgeley820252007
Wimbledon720251981
Dunn Center520172010
Braddock520231988
Tobacco420191969
Roosevelt Pk420191987
Turtle Mtns420251980
Nash320102010

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.