BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in North Dakota has surged: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+250%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in North Dakota: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in North Dakota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in North Dakota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.61.911
20266.72.011
20276.82.111
20286.92.212
20297.02.412

American White Pelican Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American White Pelican in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bowman7020211996
Wild Rose4020242000
Montpelier3220242000
Ft Yates2619801980
Sheyenne Lk2620241980
Cedar Creek2420192019
Danzig2320141983
Buchanan2120241968
Parshall2020051986
Lakota 21920242010
Horsehead Lk1520241980
Carpio1219741974
Forman1020242001
Braddock1020221988
Dickinson920242024
Danzig 2920242019
Cooperstown720241977
Emerado620242002
Turtle Mtns620241980
Wimbledon520241981
Dunn Center520172010
Edgeley420242007
Tobacco420191969
Denbigh420241975
Roosevelt Pk420191987

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.