BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Wisconsin has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

15×Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American White Pelican in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 13× by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.00 (95% range 0.24–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

13×Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±426.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 13× by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.00 (95% range 0.24–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19972030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.900.141.7
20270.920.161.7
20280.950.191.7
20290.970.211.7
20301.000.241.8

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording American White Pelican in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hebron4220212021
Grimms2820182017
Clintonville1920182018
Fall River1120232023
Rolling Pr520242006
Beaver Dam420232011
Holland220252019
Wis Rapids220162008
Casco220252003
Omro 2220252007
Pardeeville220232019
Manitowoc120192019
Rib Lake120071997
Washington I120232000

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.