BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Wisconsin has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

22×Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Wisconsin: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 290% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.47–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+290%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 290% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.47–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19972029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.331.7
20261.10.371.7
20271.10.401.8
20281.10.441.8
20291.20.471.8

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording American White Pelican in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hebron4220212021
Grimms2820182017
Clintonville1920182018
Casco1420242003
Fall River1120232023
Omro 2520242007
Rolling Pr520242006
Beaver Dam420232011
Wis Rapids220162008
Pardeeville220232019
Holland120192019
Manitowoc120192019
Rib Lake120071997
Washington I120232000

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.