BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in South Dakota has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has fallen sharply in South Dakota: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in South Dakota is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in South Dakota is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.005.3
20272.30.005.3
20282.40.005.4
20292.40.005.4
20302.40.005.4

American White Pelican Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording American White Pelican in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymond6120211984
Cedar Pass4320251994
Britton2020231972
Pioneer1820021995
Harding1520162016
Promise1419731973
Turton1120232007
Howard1020221990
Long Lake1020191978
Roswell820141990
Forbes620251967
Ardmore620191994
Wilmot520241979
Gettysburg519921992
Geddes420232023
Chamberlain419691969
Winner420072004
Cottonwood420072003
Volga320251987
Ft Thompson320071968
Badlands320061994
White River320001994
Ottumwa220191970
Lacreek220231991
S. Pioneer120111996

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.