BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Texas has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

-89%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has collapsed in Texas: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Texas is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±182.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Texas is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.51
20270.060.000.51
20280.060.000.50
20290.050.000.49
20300.050.000.49

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording American White Pelican in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Weinert7619891989
Bayside1020022002
Katy1019871987
Bayside 2920042000
Athens919911991
L. Atascosa Nwr820192004
Padre Island Pais820152015
Loyola Beach720082008
Town Bluff620102010
Bonner520251999
Bayside 3420252013
Indianola220042004
Lag Atascosa120052005
Loyola Beach 2120222010
Cayuga120252025
Moon Lake119951995

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.