BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Nevada has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+142%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Nevada: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Nevada is projected to fall about 55% by 2028 — from 4.7 in 2023 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Nevada is projected to fall about 55% by 2028 — from 4.7 in 2023 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20242.20.007.8
20252.20.007.8
20262.10.007.8
20272.10.007.8
20282.10.007.8

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording American White Pelican in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nixon8520231992
Chimney Res.2520192016
Ash Meadows1219941994
Sand Pass520162009
Hawthorne320012001
Virgin Creek220181995
Bald Mtn.120171997
Oreana120022002
Fallon120221995
Gardnerville120061998
Dobbin Creek120081996

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.