BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Oregon has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-76%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has collapsed in Oregon: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Oregon is projected to rise about 201% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±235.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+201%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±235.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Oregon is projected to rise about 201% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±235.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.860.003.2
20270.850.003.2
20280.830.003.1
20290.820.003.1
20300.800.003.1

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording American White Pelican in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner Vally16420211994
Sparta5319911991
Pendleton5220142014
Malheur Nwr3820221986
Troy2020252025
Hells Canyon1819981998
Modoc Point1220181970
Merrill1220181995
Umatilla1220231996
Princeton1119851973
Crane720242024
Nicolai Mtn.420242017
Bly 2420242008
Barnes Val419841984
Sheaville420242019
Modoc Point 2320252024
Lapham Res.320051991
Bly320012001
Catlow Rim320251996
Prospect320082008
Adrian220082004
Blizzard Gap220191985
Harney Lake220241993
Wagontire119961996
Fish Lake120251973

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.