BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-66%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American White Pelican Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American White Pelican Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Oregon is projected to rise about 162% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+162%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Oregon is projected to rise about 162% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.920.003.3
20260.910.003.2
20270.900.003.2
20280.890.003.2
20290.870.003.2

American White Pelican Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording American White Pelican in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner Vally16420211994
Sparta5319911991
Pendleton5220142014
Malheur Nwr3820221986
Hells Canyon1819981998
Modoc Point1220181970
Merrill1220181995
Umatilla1220231996
Princeton1119851973
Modoc Point 2820242024
Crane720242024
Catlow Rim520161996
Nicolai Mtn.420242017
Bly 2420242008
Barnes Val419841984
Sheaville420242019
Lapham Res.320051991
Bly320012001
Prospect320082008
Adrian220082004
Blizzard Gap220191985
Fish Lake220241973
Harney Lake220241993
Wagontire119961996

American White Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.