BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Analysis

IcteridaeWetland birdsXanthocephalus xanthocephalus

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+159%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
912RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Yellow-headed Blackbird

The Yellow-headed Blackbird (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus) is a North American member of the Blackbirds & Orioles (Icteridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
6.5–17 in long (16–43 cm) — a small to medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 912 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 25 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Icteridae · Wetland birds

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in surveyed states: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.33.9
20272.61.33.9
20282.61.33.9
20292.61.33.9
20302.61.33.9

Where the Yellow-headed Blackbird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird, sized by most recent count.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend by State

Yellow-headed Blackbird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+196%197123
California-47%197074
Colorado+345%197178
Idaho-82%197042
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a6
Indianainsufficient datan/a1
Iowa-43%197018
Kansas-84%196924
Michiganinsufficient datan/a1
Minnesota-61%196964
Missouriinsufficient datan/a4
Montana-1%197074
Nebraska+29%196952
Nevada+188%197034
New Mexico-90%199214
North Dakota+376%196950
Ohioinsufficient datan/a1
Oklahoma+81%197013
Oregon-64%197055
South Dakota-4%196951
Texas+129%198215
Utah+176%197052
Washington-12%197044
Wisconsin-94%196832
Wyoming+22%197090

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Yellow-headed Blackbird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-40%19777
Great Basin-29%1970174
Northern Rockies-24%1970122
Prairie Potholes+118%1969118
Boreal Hardwood Transition-72%196925
Sierra Nevada-96%19737
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+101%197179
Badlands and Prairies+18%1969103
Shortgrass Prairie-31%196975
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-52%196952
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-86%196933
Prairie Hardwood Transition-88%196842
Coastal California-98%197027
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+156%197235
Sierra Madre Occidental-62%19798

Yellow-headed Blackbird Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 159% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.