BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-98%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.13 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2620.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2620.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.13 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2620.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.0011
20230.000.0011
20240.000.0011
20250.000.0011
20260.000.0011

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SattleyCALIFORNIA72019
PaxtonCALIFORNIA52010
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA42007
GoumazCALIFORNIA22007
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA22021
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA11975
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.