BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 162% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±715.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+162%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±715.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 162% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±715.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.001.7
20260.270.001.7
20270.240.001.7
20280.210.001.6
20290.180.001.6

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlenwoodMINNESOTA162019
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA62024
ElderonWISCONSIN61981
EvergreenMINNESOTA51989
Beaver DamWISCONSIN42004
Money CreekMINNESOTA32014
Fall RiverWISCONSIN31992
ChatfieldMINNESOTA21987
Le CenterMINNESOTA22023
New LondonMINNESOTA22023
AshbyMINNESOTA22021
HudsonWISCONSIN22023
EsdaileWISCONSIN21989
CochraneWISCONSIN22022
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN21991
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN22005
CascoWISCONSIN21984
PardeevilleWISCONSIN21988
HebronWISCONSIN22013
FestinaIOWA11984
MillvilleMINNESOTA12005
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA12014
PrincetonMINNESOTA12012
OsseoMINNESOTA12019
KnappMINNESOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.