BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-40%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.070.000.30
20240.060.000.29
20250.060.000.29
20260.060.000.28
20270.050.000.28

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YrekaCALIFORNIA112019
Elk LakeOREGON52016
AdairOREGON32022
MccloudCALIFORNIA22009
GazelleCALIFORNIA22001
Bay ViewWASHINGTON12006
Mendota 2WASHINGTON11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.