BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Texas has surged: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+266%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.13
20260.050.000.13
20270.050.000.13
20280.060.000.13
20290.060.000.14

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pantex1020212021
Dougherty920222007
Floydada820111981
Friona720212017
Dalhart520062006
Circle320241977
Waka320232023
Claytonville220092009
Gruver220232005
Brite220062006
Beaver Creek119981998
Plains120152006
Panhandle120112011
Post120242012

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.