BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Washington has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Washington. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Washington is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±269.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+145%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±269.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Washington is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±269.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.008.2
20263.80.008.2
20273.80.008.2
20283.80.008.2
20293.80.008.2

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Othello11119911981
Ewan 25220242023
Ewan3320191983
Mesa3120081994
Sulphur1520162003
Scootney Reservoir1020242009
Potholes920231996
Malden720231998
Asotin620241982
Brewster520181977
L Pend O Nwr520241996
Reardan520241968
Yakima520091993
Harrington420121974
Horn Rapids420242010
Laurier420121997
Moses Lake320221973
Columbia Nwr320221992
Wilbur320241983
Nighthawk320211992
Odessa320221993
Hanford Site219921988
Turnbull Nwr220231993
Wapato220131975
Mercer220212021

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.