BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in New Mexico has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-78%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has collapsed in New Mexico: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.001.3
20260.000.001.3
20270.000.001.3
20280.000.001.3
20290.000.001.3

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire1220021993
Angel Fire 2420242005
Laborcita220151993
Stinking Lk.219991992
Carrizozo219971997
Rosebud220012001
Clovis120182018
La Cienega119901990
La Plata119921992
Cooley Lake120181976
Horse Spgs119991999
Shiprock120051995
Dulce120242000
Maxwell120191997

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.