BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nevada has surged: up 400% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+400%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in Nevada: up 400% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nevada is projected to rise about 203% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 0.00–64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±295.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+203%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±295.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nevada is projected to rise about 203% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 0.00–64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±295.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025240.0063
2026250.0063
2027250.0064
2028250.0064
2029260.0064

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fallon16120241992
Oreana4620032002
Virgin Creek3820181995
Gardnerville 23320182013
Ruby Valley 22520242004
Dobbin Creek1520181972
Cortez1320241968
Charleston Reservoir1320242024
Eureka1020221975
Midas820131990
Dinner Sta819931968
Ranchogrande820241988
Minerva620171989
Carson River520022001
Majors Place420241968
Darroughs Hot Spgs420242004
Piute Mdws320152015
Calico Spr319741974
Sand Pass319981995
Toiyabe Nf320241987
Meadow Vally320171996
Hiko320161968
Mizpah220231988
Ash Meadows220241993
Gardnerville220121992

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.