BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±158.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.006.2
20260.000.006.2
20270.000.006.2
20280.000.006.2
20290.000.006.2

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrill14120221994
Princeton7819851972
Umatilla6120231992
Catlow Rim3120231994
Modoc Point3020181969
Fish Lake2520241972
Wickiup2219881987
Modoc Point 22120242024
Malheur Nwr2120221986
Davis Lake1420242000
Harney Lake1220221993
Albee1019881988
Sheaville920242013
Blizzard Gap720241984
Warner Vally720241993
Alvord Lake620241968
Sparta619991971
Blitzen 2520241994
Ordnance519791971
Dell Spring519901968
Elk Lake520161981
Chinchalo520231993
Fandango Can420231980
Silver Creek420222022
Bly419951973

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.