BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-64%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.006.2
20270.000.006.2
20280.000.006.2
20290.000.006.2
20300.000.006.2

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrill14120221994
Princeton7819851972
Modoc Point 26720252024
Fish Lake6120251972
Blizzard Gap3220251984
Modoc Point3020181969
Malheur Nwr2120221986
Blitzen 21520251994
Sheaville1320252013
Harney Lake1220221993
Albee1019881988
Bly 21020252007
Davis Lake1020252000
Warner Vally720241993
Umatilla720251992
Ordnance519791971
Dell Spring519901968
Elk Lake520161981
Catlow Rim520251994
Chinchalo520231993
Sparta420251971
Silver Creek420222022
Bly419951973
Crane420211998
Fandango Can320251980

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.