BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Utah has surged: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+174%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in Utah: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Utah is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.59–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+190%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±146.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Utah is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.59–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.60.3611
20265.60.4211
20275.70.4811
20285.70.5311
20295.80.5911

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res7820181995
Randolph7320241992
Bear River6120231992
Callao2520241992
Iron Springs1919891982
Promontory1120241974
Bicknell820211997
Grantsville720022002
Ant Flat-Ogden Can720041997
Saleratus Cr620171995
Woodruff620212002
Grouse Creek619991986
Leamington620161993
Goshen520241968
Fairfield520021989
Altonah319951995
Notch Peak320191986
Lynn320131982
Snowville320232004
Hanna320152000
Gold Hill320191989
Delta320241987
Salt Springs220071986
Timpie Spg220031982
Hanksville220171995

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.