BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Utah has surged: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+176%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in Utah: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Utah is projected to rise about 95% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.69–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Utah is projected to rise about 95% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.69–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.60.4711
20275.70.5311
20285.70.5811
20295.80.6411
20305.80.6911

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River10820251992
Neponset Res7820181995
Randolph3920251992
Callao2120251992
Iron Springs1919891982
Promontory920251974
Bicknell820211997
Delta820251987
Boulder720251969
Grantsville720022002
Ant Flat-Ogden Can720041997
Saleratus Cr620171995
Woodruff620212002
Grouse Creek619991986
Leamington620161993
Goshen520241968
Gold Hill520251989
Fairfield520021989
Wellington 3420252012
Altonah319951995
Notch Peak320191986
Lynn320131982
Snowville320232004
Hanna320152000
Salt Springs220071986

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.