BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in South Dakota has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in South Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in South Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.40.0027
20269.20.0026
20279.00.0026
20288.80.0026
20298.60.0026

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forbes18320241967
White Lake9720111967
Long Lake5520191967
Gettysburg4020231969
Raymond3920211967
Lacreek3820231991
Veblen3620231967
Britton3020231967
Roswell2620141967
Wilmot2620241967
Ardmore1820191977
Howard1720241970
Ft Thompson1620111967
Volga1420241967
Conde1319841967
Eagle Butte920101990
Turton920241985
Lennox820241967
Hayes820241989
Broadland720141972
Ottumwa720221967
Geddes520181969
Lodgepole520231995
Isabel520151990
Marcus420122012

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.